The hottest renewable energy is rising rapidly. Ec

2022-08-13
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The rapid rise of renewable energy! Where is the driving force for economic energy to replace expensive energy

like all normal commodities, consumers also pursue high quality and low price in terms of starting machines and energy commodities. In the development of human society, coal and other fossil energy can replace firewood because of its high efficiency and low cost. For nearly 200 years, fossil energy has been firmly occupying the position of the main energy, also because there is no other substitute that can be unparalleled in terms of efficiency and economy

interestingly, from the perspective of environmental protection, people will come to the view that renewable energy should replace fossil energy. However, when calculating the economic account, it is easy to split into different camps. It can be seen that the fundamental factor determining whether renewable energy can replace fossil energy is the economy of renewable energy production and use

fortunately, the supply cost of renewable energy has been declining over the years. Although it is still higher than fossil energy, this critical point is not far away

supply cost of energy

supply cost of energy, including internal and external costs. Internal cost is the direct cost of energy development and utilization, while external cost mainly includes indirect costs that affect external factors such as the environment

first, the overall internal and external costs of fossil energy supply have gradually increased over the years. The internal cost shows that the exploitation of fossil energy is becoming more difficult and the cost is increasing. With the gradual transfer of oil and gas exploration and development to areas with complex geological and geographical conditions such as deep sea and polar regions, the production cost continues to rise

according to the statistical analysis of the International Energy Agency, the average marginal exploitation cost of world oil was $30/barrel in 2003, and reached $80/barrel in 2011; Secondly, external costs are also increasing. The development and utilization of traditional fossil energy will cause a large number of pollutant emissions, cause serious damage to the atmosphere, water, soil, etc., and endanger human health. At the same time, the emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases caused by the combustion of fossil energy have also caused systemic disasters such as global warming. It is in order to correct the huge negative environmental externalities of fossil energy that many countries and regions have or are considering imposing resource taxes, carbon taxes, environmental taxes, or carrying out carbon emissions trading. These measures, without exception, will lead to further increases in the supply cost of fossil energy resources

in contrast, the internal cost of renewable energy is gradually declining and beginning to show competitiveness. From an economic point of view, renewable energy is becoming more competitive. If we further consider its low external environmental costs, the comprehensive benefits will be greater. According to German experts, the external cost of coal-fired power plants per kilowatt hour should be about cents per kilowatt hour, while the external cost of solar power generation is only about 0 per kilowatt hour Five cents

in China, such a scenario is unfolding. The situation of traditional fossil energy is not as good as before. The pressure of resource consumption and depletion brings upward pressure on coal prices, resulting in an increase in the cost of thermal power. The massive increase in coal consumption has also led to many environmental problems, such as the serious haze in Beijing Tianjin Hebei and other regions in recent years, and the government plans to invest trillions of yuan in atmospheric governance. If these environmental treatment costs are considered comprehensively, the supply cost of fossil energy is by no means low. On the contrary, the ecological and environmental benefits of renewable energy are becoming more and more obvious, and will become an important factor to enhance competitiveness in the long run

of course, the external environmental cost is difficult to internalize in a short time. At present, the main factor affecting the energy supply cost is the internal cost. Compared with the average kilowatt hour cost of thermal power in cents/kWh, the cost level of renewable energy is relatively high. Too high pressure will cause slight expansion. There are also differences in the cost levels of different types of renewable energy. Among them, the prices of hydropower, biomass and wind power have been more easily accepted by the market, while the cost of kwh of solar thermal power generation is relatively high. In the past five years, the cost of renewable energy power generation has decreased significantly. For example, the cost of solar and wind power generation in the United States has decreased significantly, and in some regional markets, it has even been lower than that of coal-fired or natural gas power generation

according to the statistics of the American Solar Energy Industry Association, the long-term contract price of large-scale solar power projects in 2013 has decreased by more than 70% compared with 2008. The initial installation cost of solar energy projects with standard utility scale also decreased by more than 1/3 on average compared with 2009. The situation of wind power is similar to that of solar energy. According to the industry data of the American Wind Energy Association, the cost of wind power has fallen by more than half in recent years. In some regions of the United States, there are already wind power projects that cost less than existing traditional power generation

the EU market is similar. From the trend analysis of photovoltaic power generation costs in the EU, the kWh cost per kWh will decline by about 50% in a year. It is predicted that the levelization cost of photovoltaic power generation in the EU will decrease year by year at an average annual rate of 5% from 18 cents/kWh to 30 cents/kwh in 2010, and is expected to drop to about 9 cents/kWh to 21 cents/kWh by 2020

China will become the most competitive market between renewable energy power generation and conventional energy power generation, and the difference in kwh cost between renewable energy and fossil fuels will continue to narrow. With the reform of natural gas price, domestic manufacturers will gradually prosper the market and provide customers with more economical and practical experimental machines, pushing the cost of natural gas power generation to about 10 cents/kWh, while the current cost of photovoltaic power generation will be similar and flat

the cost of solar power generation in China has decreased year by year: in 1977, the cost of solar power generation was as high as 200 yuan/kWh. By the end of 2000, the power generation cost of monocrystalline silicon solar cells had been reduced to RMB/kWh, and the power generation cost of amorphous silicon cells was RMB/kWh. With the improvement of domestic solar cell module technology, the cost of solar power generation in China has fallen to 0 About 8 yuan/kWh (about 12 cents/kWh)

economy of renewable energy

from the perspective of its own economic improvement, renewable energy has indeed ushered in a period of development opportunities in the context of global energy development and transformation. Whether from a global perspective or from the analysis of China's actual situation, the major developed countries in the world and emerging economies such as China have entered the rapid rise channel of renewable energy development and utilization

in Europe and the United States, renewable energy accounts for 60% to 70% of the new energy installed capacity, and renewable energy investment has exceeded fossil energy investment. In China, renewable energy accounts for half of the installed capacity of new energy, and 60% of it is renewable energy according to the investment. In terms of photovoltaic industry, the key to the competition between photovoltaic and traditional fossil energy is price and cost. Because the price of photovoltaic cement pipe ring stiffness test Electromechanical is higher than that of conventional energy, the development of China's photovoltaic industry has long relied on national policy subsidies. However, in recent years, the manufacturing technology of crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules in China has made great progress, and significant achievements have been made in the research and development work around cost reduction. The thickness of silicon wafer has been continuously reduced, and the battery efficiency has been continuously improved. In just a few years, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has fallen by more than the market expected

the obvious fact is that renewable energy was still a secondary energy system more than a decade ago, but now it is growing faster than any other energy, and the decline in cost also makes it able to compete with fossil energy. Five or six years ago, the benchmark price of photovoltaic power generation in 2009 was 1.5 yuan/kWh. If the photovoltaic power generation price decreased by 8% every year, the photovoltaic power generation price in 2014 will be lower than 1 yuan/kWh

from the actual situation, the data shows that the kilowatt hour cost of domestic photovoltaic industry has reached 0.7-0.8 yuan, while the kilowatt hour cost of traditional energy is around 0.4 yuan. If a certain amount of national policy subsidies (financial subsidies or alternative mechanisms such as green card) are added, the cost of kWh can reach 0.4 yuan or less, and photovoltaic applications may reach a "critical point"

of course, people may ask, since the power generation cost of renewable energy has become competitive, why is there no great change in the replacement of traditional fossil energy by renewable energy? The proportion of renewable power generation is still very low? What needs to be explained here is that the magnitude of the substitution effect of renewable energy is restricted by the instability of power generation in addition to its own cost competitiveness. Renewable energy sources, such as wind energy and solar energy, are intermittent and can only generate electricity in part of the time. In order to maintain the continuous supply of electricity, traditional thermal power plants need to be built, resulting in low operating load and efficiency. In order to ensure operation, a certain subsidy is also needed. The unstable factors of power generation have reduced the effect of renewable energy replacing traditional energy

but in the long run, the replacement trend of renewable energy is certain. The national energy administration predicts that by 2020, China's new wind power projects will no longer need subsidies and can achieve self benign development. The notice on the demonstration work of wind power parity issued by the comprehensive Department of the national energy administration has been issued at the end of May 2017, sounding the horn of wind power parity in China. In some regions and fields, solar photovoltaic power generation can basically achieve parity development with the cost of power supply. Photovoltaic parity will be fully realized in 2025

in the next 20 years, renewable energy will probably account for half of the global energy supply growth. If the critical point of parity is broken, the era of renewable energy as the main energy will come

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